7.5% Unemployment. Don't Worry, for the "Natural Rate of Unemployment" Is Just Under 6%
Posted: Thursday, February 12, 2009
by Jeff Brown
Inner Projection
"In the U.S. today, economists
estimate it [Natural Rate of Unemployment] to be slightly less than 6 percent. Friedman is said
to regret the term "natural rate of unemployment," since
it implies that a certain amount of unemployment is acceptable.
Therefore, most economists prefer to use the euphemism "NAIRU,"
which stands for Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment." (Paul Krugman, Peddling Prosperity (New York: W.W. Norton
& Company, 1994), pp. 40-47)
What with people being fired, laid off, changing careers, between jobs, and so on, there will always be unemployment. According to many economist, if the unemployment rate were, say, 5.8% this would be acceptable.
But I write not to examine the 'natural rate of unemployment' or Keynesian theory, but to put what is happening in perspective for the average spoiled American. For example, my wife left Colombia ten years ago because she was no longer working, and according to her, if you reach the age of 30 without a job, the likelihood of ever working again is slim. The crunch for jobs around the world, with the exception of the United States, is horrific. By comparison, our 7.5% unemployment rate looks paradisical to 94% of the world.
But to put things in perspective for the average whoo-is-me, horrible recession, catastrophic calamity, end of the world, it's never been worse, I'm gonna die, help, help, help American, here's some eye openers:
If you rent an apartment and a car, you are doing better than 90% of the rest of the world.
If you have a job that pays more than $3 a day, you are doing better than 50% of the rest of the world.
If you live in America (6% of the world's population), you are privy to more than half the worlds wealth.
If you live in America, you can walk down streets generally free of worry about being shot, mugged, kidnapped, raped, or have your jewelry, wallet, cloths, or bike stolen.
If you live in America, regardless of economic conditions, you have a 90% better chance of getting another job if you don't have one now than those in the rest of the world.
Having taught for over seven years at the college / university level exposed to students of many races and cultures, and having personal friends and family who have mostly come from Portugal and Latin America in their lifetime, the horrific stories I have been told about being shot and killed for wearing fingernail polish; pulled out of bed, shot and killed by the police without trial; or being stoned to death because your mother turned you in for walking with a boy who was not family turn my stomach. And what turns my stomach just as much if not more is hearing Americans constantly and consistently complain about this slight bump in the economic road we are experiencing.
Personally, I have lost my job; been out of work for over three months without any income, eating peanut butter and jelly sandwiches once a day for sustenance; on a minute-by-minute basis stared the abject fear of living on the street face to face; payed people I owed money in furniture; lived in squalid conditions where my roommates saw people killed, or coming home I witnessed a dozen gang bangers lined up on their knees for arrest and processing; stared death in the face as I lie in the hospital with cancer waiting to die . . . I know what it means to take it on the chin from life.
But are the majority merely fearful of having to downsize or lose life and limb? That is the rub.
Regardless of what happens, the problems we experience in these United States is a far cry from what the majority of the world experience. Scared about your employment situation? Afraid of the future economic condition of America? Take a trip to South America, Africa, the Middle East, or Asia. When you come back, not only will you have gained greater perspective, but maybe when you get back on your feet, you will think more about the majority of your brothers and sisters in the rest of the world who even in the best of times suffer more than you do now or ever will.
Peace and God's blessing to you.
But I write not to examine the 'natural rate of unemployment' or Keynesian theory, but to put what is happening in perspective for the average spoiled American. For example, my wife left Colombia ten years ago because she was no longer working, and according to her, if you reach the age of 30 without a job, the likelihood of ever working again is slim. The crunch for jobs around the world, with the exception of the United States, is horrific. By comparison, our 7.5% unemployment rate looks paradisical to 94% of the world.
But to put things in perspective for the average whoo-is-me, horrible recession, catastrophic calamity, end of the world, it's never been worse, I'm gonna die, help, help, help American, here's some eye openers:
If you rent an apartment and a car, you are doing better than 90% of the rest of the world.
If you have a job that pays more than $3 a day, you are doing better than 50% of the rest of the world.
If you live in America (6% of the world's population), you are privy to more than half the worlds wealth.
If you live in America, you can walk down streets generally free of worry about being shot, mugged, kidnapped, raped, or have your jewelry, wallet, cloths, or bike stolen.
If you live in America, regardless of economic conditions, you have a 90% better chance of getting another job if you don't have one now than those in the rest of the world.
Having taught for over seven years at the college / university level exposed to students of many races and cultures, and having personal friends and family who have mostly come from Portugal and Latin America in their lifetime, the horrific stories I have been told about being shot and killed for wearing fingernail polish; pulled out of bed, shot and killed by the police without trial; or being stoned to death because your mother turned you in for walking with a boy who was not family turn my stomach. And what turns my stomach just as much if not more is hearing Americans constantly and consistently complain about this slight bump in the economic road we are experiencing.
Personally, I have lost my job; been out of work for over three months without any income, eating peanut butter and jelly sandwiches once a day for sustenance; on a minute-by-minute basis stared the abject fear of living on the street face to face; payed people I owed money in furniture; lived in squalid conditions where my roommates saw people killed, or coming home I witnessed a dozen gang bangers lined up on their knees for arrest and processing; stared death in the face as I lie in the hospital with cancer waiting to die . . . I know what it means to take it on the chin from life.
But are the majority merely fearful of having to downsize or lose life and limb? That is the rub.
Regardless of what happens, the problems we experience in these United States is a far cry from what the majority of the world experience. Scared about your employment situation? Afraid of the future economic condition of America? Take a trip to South America, Africa, the Middle East, or Asia. When you come back, not only will you have gained greater perspective, but maybe when you get back on your feet, you will think more about the majority of your brothers and sisters in the rest of the world who even in the best of times suffer more than you do now or ever will.
Peace and God's blessing to you.
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Top-level comments on this article: (1 total)Wow... great article. Really puts us (readers) in our place.
Thanks Jeff!Thanks so much for stopping by and commenting.
Yes, us readers (me too) have a lot to learn and to deal with.
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